And The Winner Is....

I predict a Kris Allen win for the American Idol finals..... and that has actually NOTHING to do with the performances. Both did well, but here's why I think Kris will win:

The whole season plotted the Adam fans vs the Danny fans since everyone had them pegged as the final 2 from the get go. This late in the competition, it has less to do with who gets more vote week to week, as it does who has the stronger fan base of teenage girls texting 100s of times in the 2 hour slot.

So from last week, you had:
Fans X that voted for Adam (probably voted for him most of the season)
Fans Y that voted for Kris (probably a growing number throughout the season - picking up the fans of other contestants week to week)
Fans Z that voted for Danny (probably voted for him most of the season)

The winner is whoever gets the most of that Z amount of voters from Danny.

Break down the Danny Z fans as follows:
20% or so vote weekly for who they liked best, so they'll vote differently every week
30% or so won't vote since their boy Danny is out
remaining 50% are the ones who hold the balance of the AI Champion. And since these Danny fans have ALWAYS seen Adam as their competition since week 1, they will continue to not want Adam to win. Thus they will vote Against Adam and vote for Kris. Plus it's natural for people to root for the underdog, which is clearly Kris.

Granted voting AGAINST someone didn't help us win the 2004 presidential election in order to get Bush out of office, but I think it will for American Idol. So there's my analysis.

By the way Kara - your song sucks, but that's typical of the "new hit" that is always written for the AI final.

I had to watch the performances delayed, I was too busy watching the RedWings win in Overtime this morning while working... yeah, you heard me right. Priorities.